Demography

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1.1 Key Facts

  • For 2020, the population of Barnet is estimated to be 402,700, which is the largest of all the London boroughs.
  • The borough’s overall population is projected to increase by around 10.9% between 2020 and 2030, taking the number of residents to about 446,400.
  • The number of people aged 65 and over is projected to increase by 29.8% between 2020 and 2030, compared with a 4.9% increase in the 0-19 age group and a 9.4% increase for working age adults aged 16-64.
  • In 2020, for both males and females in the borough, the most populous age groups are the 30-34 years and 35-39 years old and the least populous are the 85-89 years old and 90+ years old groups.
  • The Barnet population is projected to become increasingly diverse, with the proportion of Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic (BAME) people in the borough population rising from 40.3% in 2020 to 42.8% in 2030.
  • In 2020, the net population of Barnet is predicted to grow by around 8,500 people. By the year 2030, this annual growth is projected to fall to 3,400 and by 2040, it is predicted to further decline to about 1,500 people. 

1.2 Strategic Needs

  • Barnet is the largest borough in London by population and is continuing to grow.
  • The wards with the greatest percentage increase in population between 2020 and 2040 are Golders Green, Colindale, Edgware and Mill Hill. In contrast, other wards in Barnet (e.g. Garden Suburb, Coppetts, Hale, East Finchley, Burnt Oak, and Oakleigh) are predicted to decrease in population by 2040.
  • Women in Barnet have a significantly higher life expectancy than men.
  • The borough will become increasingly diverse, driven predominantly by growth within the existing population. Meeting the diverse needs of these growing communities may be a key challenge, as Colindale, Burnt Oak and West Hendon have increasingly diverse populations that are more than 50% Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic (BAME).
  • Female life expectancy in Barnet (85.8 years) is significantly better than both London (84.5 years) and England (83.2 years).
  • Male life expectancy in Barnet (82.4 years) is significantly better than both London (80.7 years) and England (79.6 years).
  • The life expectancy of people living in the most deprived areas of the borough are on average 8.1 years less for men and 7.6 years less for women than those in the least deprived areas, based on a comparison of the 10% most deprived and 10% least deprived areas in the borough.

1.3 Population Growth

Figure 1.1 shows the projected increase in the Barnet population between 2001 and 2018, based on mid-year population estimates from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Based on these mid-year estimates, the total Barnet population was predicted to grow by about a quarter (23%) from 319,500 in June 2001 to 392,100 in June 2018.[1]

Figure 1.1: Total Barnet population, Mid-Year Estimates, 2001–2018

Fig 1.1

Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS, 2018). Mid-year population estimates, 2018.

Figure 1.2 shows Barnet’s population growth from 2001 to 2018, compared to its CIPFA statistical neighbours,[2] London and England, based on ONS mid year population estimates. Over this period, the total population of Barnet is predicted to have increased by 22.7%, which is significantly higher than the population growth for both London (21.7%) and England (13.2%). When compared to its CIPFA nearest neighbour comparators, Barnet was ranked 4th highest out of 16 similar local authorities, based on estimated population growth between 2001 and 2018.[3]

Figure 1.2: Population growth for Barnet, its statistical neighbours, London and England, 2001-2018

Fig 1.2

      Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS, 2019). Mid-year population estimates, 2018.

      Table 1.1 shows how the total population in Barnet increases from 2020 to 2035. Based on Borough Preferred Option (BPO) population estimates for Barnet from the Greater London Authority (GLA), the total population of the borough is projected to grow by 10.9% in 2030 and by 15.3% in 2035, compared to a 2020 baseline. [4]

      Table 1.1: Growth in Barnet population between 2020 and 2035

      Table 1.1

        Source: Greater London Authority (GLA, 2019). Borough Preferred Option (BPO). [Population estimates have been rounded to the nearest 100.]

         [1] Office for National Statistics (ONS, 2019). Dataset: Estimates of the population for the UK, England and Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland (Mid Year Estimates (MYE) 2018). Available at:https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/datasets/populationestimatesforukenglandandwalesscotlandandnorthernireland

        [2] The Chartered Institute of Public Finance and Accountancy (CIPFA) Nearest Neighbours model is used to measure similarity between local authorities. The CIPFA groups used by Public Health England (PHE) benchmark against the 15 nearest neighbours to a local authority. Technical Guidance (see “Comparators Briefing – Overview”) is available at: https://fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/guidance 

        [3] Office for National Statistics (ONS, 2019). Dataset: Estimates of the population for the UK, England and Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland (Mid Year Estimates (MYE) 2018). Available at:https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/datasets/populationestimatesforukenglandandwalesscotlandandnorthernireland

        [4] Greater London Authority (GLA, 2019). Borough Preferred Option for Barnet.

        1.4 Ward Populations and Projections

        Table 1.2 shows the estimated ward populations in Barnet for 2020, based on GLA Borough Preferred Option (BPO).[5] The wards are ranked according to population size, with Colindale (33,100) accounting for 8.2% of the total borough population. In contrast, High Barnet with an estimated population of 15,900 represents only 3.9% of the borough population.

        In general, the more populous wards (e.g. Colindale, Childs Hill, Mill Hill and Golders Green) are found in the south and west of the borough and the less populous wards (e.g. High Barnet, Brunswick Park and Garden Suburb) are in the north and east of Barnet.

        Table 1.2: Ward populations and percentages for Barnet, 2020

        Table 1.2

        Source: Greater London Authority (GLA, 2019). Borough Preferred Option. [Population estimates have been rounded to the nearest 100.]

        Within Barnet there is considerable variation in the size of wards, so it is useful to look at the population density of each ward to gain a deeper understanding of the distribution of population within the borough. In 2020, Colindale is projected to be the most densely populated borough with 12,528 residents per km,2  which is considerably higher than the average population density of the borough (5,694 residents per km2 ). In contrast, both Totteridge and High Barnet have population densities of less than 2,000 residents per km2. Except for Garden Suburb, the wards with the highest population densities are concentrated in the south of the borough and those with the lower population densities tend to be in the north of Barnet (see Figure 1.3).[6]

        Figure 1.3: Barnet population density (residents per km²), by ward, 2020

        Fig 1.3

         

          Sources: Greater London Authority (GLA, 2019). Borough Preferred Option & Greater London Authority (GLA, 2018). Land area and population density data.

          Table 1.3 shows how the population of the wards in Barnet is projected to change between 2020 and 2040, based on GLA estimates.[7] By 2040, the population of two wards (Golders Green & Colindale) is predicted to exceed 50,000, whilst over a dozen wards in the borough may still have populations of under 20,000 residents (see Table 1.3).

          Table 1.3: Changes to ward populations in Barnet, 2020-2040

          Table 1.3

          Source: Greater London Authority (GLA, 2019). Borough Preferred Option. [Population estimates are rounded to the nearest 100.]

          Table 1.4 shows how the estimated population of Barnet wards is predicted to change between 2030 and 2040, when compared to 2020. The wards with the greatest percentage increase in population by 2040 are Golders Green (138.7%), Colindale (52.0%), Edgware (41.0%) and Mill Hill (20.3%). In contrast, other wards in Barnet (e.g. Garden Suburb, Coppetts, Hale, East Finchley, Burnt Oak, and Oakleigh) are predicted to decrease in population by 2040. As can be seen from Figure 1.4, with the exception of Edgware, the wards with substantial population growth closely match localities in the borough where regeneration is planned as part of the “Delivering for Barnet” programme, such as Colindale, Brent Cross and Cricklewood.[8] 

          Table 1.4 Percentage change in ward populations, 2030-2040, compared to 2020

          Table 1.4

          Source: Greater London Authority (GLA, 2019). Borough Preferred Option. [% change is based on population figures rounded to the nearest 100.]

           

          Figure 1.4: Regeneration map showing areas of planned development in the borough

          Figure 1.4 Regeneration map showing areas of planned development in the borough

            Source: London Borough of Barnet (2020). Regeneration map for the “Delivering for Barnet” programme.

             

            [5] Greater London Authority (GLA, 2019). Borough Preferred Option (BPO).

            [6] Greater London Authority (GLA, 2019). Borough Preferred Option & Greater London Authority (GLA, 2018). Land area and population density data. Available at: https://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/land-area-and-population-density-ward-and-borough

            [7] Greater London Authority (GLA, 2019). Borough Preferred Option (BPO).

            [8] London Borough of Barnet (2020). Regeneration map for the “Delivering for Barnet” programme. Available at: https://www.barnet.gov.uk/citizen-home/delivering-for-barnet/map.html

            1.5 Age and Gender Structure

            Table 1.5 shows how the population of Barnet in 2020 is distributed between quinary (5 year) age groups and across gender. In 2020, the total resident population of the borough is estimated at 402,700 of which 50.5% is female (n = 203,300) and 49.5% is male (n = 199,400). For both males and females in the borough, the most populous age bands are 30-34 years and 35-39 years and the least populous are 85-89 years and 90+ years.[9]

            Table 1.5: Barnet population by 5 year age band and gender, 2020

            Table 1.5

            Source: Greater London Authority (GLA, 2019). Borough Preferred Option data.

            [Figures have been rounded to nearest 100 and may not sum due to rounding.]

            In 2020, for both males and females in Barnet, the most populous age groups are the 30-34 years and 35-39 years old (where the population pyramid spreads out the most) and the least populous are the 85-89 years old and 90+ years old groups (where the pyramid narrows the most)(refer to Figure 1.5).[10]

            Figure 1.5: Population pyramid for Barnet, by 5 year age group and gender, 2020

            Fig 1.5

            Source: Greater London Authority (GLA, 2019). Borough Preferred Option (BPO) data.

             

            [9] Greater London Authority (GLA, 2019). Borough Preferred Option (BPO) data.

            [10] Greater London Authority (GLA, 2019). Borough Preferred Option (BPO)  data.

             

              1.6 Population Projections by Age Group

              Between 2020 and 2030, the following changes are predicted for the young people, working age and older age groups within Barnet, based on projections from the GLA Borough Preferred Option (BPO):

              • Young people (0-19 yrs): Increase of 4.9% (from 99,300 to 104,200)
              • Working age (16-64 yrs): Increase of 9.4% (from 261,900 to 286,500)
              • Older people (aged 65+): Increase of 29.8% (from 58,400 to 75,800).[11]

              Between 2020 and 2030, the number of young people (aged 0-19 years) in Barnet is projected to increase by 4.9%. However, the majority of wards across the borough (n = 13) are predicted to show a decline in the number of children and young people aged 0-19 years over this period (see Table 1.6). In two wards (Edgware and West Finchley), there will be no change in the number of young people between 2020 and 2030, whilst an increase is projected for the remaining six wards, mainly corresponding to planned regeneration linked to these areas. In the case of Colindale ward, the number of young people is projected to grow by 56.8% from about 8,100 in 2020 to 12,700 in 2030.[12]

              Table 1.6:  Percentage change in Barnet wards between 2020 and 2030 for young people, aged 0-19 years

              Table 1.6

              Source: Greater London Authority (GLA, 2019). Borough Preferred Option data. [Data rounded to nearest 100, so may not sum to total.]

              The number of working age people (aged 16-64 years) in Barnet is predicted to show an increase of 9.4% between 2020 and 2030. In contrast to projections made for young people, roughly half of the wards in the borough are predicted to experience a decrease in working age populations, over this period. East Finchley is projected to show no change in its population between 2020 and 2030,  whilst 10 out of the 21 wards in Barnet are expected to show an increase in their working age populations. Once again, it is the areas of planned regeneration under the “Delivering for Barnet” programme where the increases in working age population are predicted to be greatest, with Golders Green expected to show an increase of 68% in its working age population over this 10 year period (see Table 1.7).[13]

              Table 1.7: Percentage change in Barnet wards between 2020 and 2030 for working age people, aged 16-64 years

              Table 1.7

              Source: Greater London Authority (GLA, 2019). Borough Preferred Option data. [Data rounded to nearest 100.]

              In contrast to younger age groups, all the ward populations in the borough are projected to have increases in their older populations (aged 65+), between 2020 and 2030. Overall, the population of Barnet aged 65+ is predicted to expand by 29.8% over this period, with an increase of about 70% in Colindale, 44% in Golders Green and 40% in Brunswick Park (see Table 1.8). Although some of the largest increases in older populations correspond to the areas of the “Delivering for Barnet” programme, there also appear to be associations with some wards with higher levels of deprivation and higher proportions of Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic (BAME) residents (e.g. West Hendon & Burnt Oak). This has serious implications for the increase in prevalence of long term conditions (such as dementia and diabetes), which rise in prevalence with age.[14]

              Table 1.8: Percentage change in Barnet wards between 2020 and 2030 for older people, aged 65+ years

              Table 1.8

              Source: Greater London Authority (GLA, 2019). Borough Preferred Option data. [Data rounded to nearest 100.]

              As can be seen from Figure 1.6, the percentage growth in the population of Barnet between 2020 and 2030 depends on the age group under consideration. Whilst the older population of the borough is estimated to increase by 29.8% over this 10 year period, the working age population is projected to increase by 9.4% and the younger population (aged 0-19 years) is predicted so show a more modest growth of 4.9%, when compared to the 2020 baseline figures.[15]

              Figure 1.6: Population projections for young, working age and older people in Barnet, 2020-2030

              Fig 1.6

               

              Source: Greater London Authority (GLA, 2019). Borough Preferred Option data.

               

               

              [11] Greater London Authority (GLA, 2019). Borough Preferred Option (BPO) data.

              [12] Greater London Authority (GLA, 2019). Borough Preferred Option (BPO) data.

              [13] Greater London Authority (GLA, 2018). Borough Preferred Option data.

              [14] Ipsos MORI (2018). Experiences of people with long-term conditions – what does GPPS data tell us? Available at: https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/experiences-people-long-term-conditions-what-does-gpps-data-tell-us-0

              [15] Greater London Authority (GLA, 2018). Borough Preferred Option data.

              1.7 Ethnicity

              Between 2020 and 2030, the population of Barnet is set to become more ethnically diverse. In 2020, the White ethnic group (composed of “White British,” “White Irish” and “Other White”) makes up 59.7% of the borough’s population. However, by 2030, this segment of the Barnet population is predicted to fall to 57.2% of the total. The largest ethnic category in Barnet during 2020 is “White British,” accounting for 38.9% of the borough population. However, by 2030, this proportion is predicted to shrink to 35.4% (see Table 1.9).[16]

              In contrast, the proportion of Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic (BAME) people in the borough is projected to rise from 40.3% in 2020 to 42.8% in 2030. Whilst there is estimated to be an overall increase in the proportion of the Barnet population with BAME, different ethnic groups within the BAME category will experience varying changes during the period 2020-2030.[17]

              Table 1.9: Population counts and percentages for ethnic groups in Barnet, persons, 2020 and 2030

              Table 1.9

              Source: GLA (2020): 2016-based central trend ethnic group projections. [Population counts are rounded to the nearest 100].

              The percentage change within ethnic groups in Barnet between 2020 and 2030 is shown in Table 1.10. The ethnic groups with the highest projected increase during this period are “Other Ethnic Group” (24.6%) and “Other Asian Group” (24.0%). All BAME categories are predicted to show increases between 2020 and 2030, with an overall increase of 17.3% in the BAME population expected over this 10 year period. In contrast, the White ethnic group will experience a rise of 5.8%.

              Table 1.10: Percentage change in ethnic groups, Barnet, 2020 - 2030

              Table 1.10

              Source: GLA (2020): 2016- based central trend ethnic group projections. [Population counts are rounded to the nearest 100].

              Figure 1.7 shows the proportion of BAME people within Barnet ward populations, based on 2011 Census data. The percentage of BAME within the borough’s wards ranged from 59.9% in Colindale to 18.3% in High Barnet. Overall, 35.9% of the population of Barnet was Black, Asian or Minority Ethnic, compared with 40.2% for London and 14.6% for England overall. Only four wards in Barnet (Colindale, Burnt Oak, West Hendon and Hale) had a higher proportion of BAME residents than the London average. However, all 21 wards in Barnet had a higher proportion of their population as BAME, compared to the national (England) average.[18]

              Figure 1.7: Percentage BAME within Barnet wards, 2011

              Figure 1.7 Percentage BAME within Barnet wards, 2011

              Source: Greater London Authority (GLA, 2020). Ward Profiles and Atlas based on Census data for % BAME from the Office for National Statistics (2011).

               

              [16] Greater London Authority (GLA, 2020). 2016- based central trend ethnic group projections. Available at: https://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/ethnic-group-population-projections 

              [18] Greater London Authority (GLA, 2020). Ward Profiles and Atlas based on Census data for % BAME from the Office for National Statistics (2011). Available at: https://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/ward-profiles-and-atlas  

               

                1.8 Religion

                Based on data from the Annual Population Survey, the most common religion in Barnet is Christianity (39.2%), followed by the Jewish (19.2%) and Muslim (11.8%) faiths (refer to Figure 1.8). Almost one in five people in the borough has no religion (19.4%), which equates to around 75,600 people, compared to the 152,500 Christians in Barnet. Whilst almost a third of people in the borough are either Jewish or Muslim (31%; n = 120,500), roughly one in twenty-five are Hindu (4.0%; n = 15,400) and Buddhists account for just under one in fifty (1.9%; n = 7,500).[19]

                Figure 1.8: Religions in Barnet, by percentage, 2018

                Fig 1.8

                Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS, 2019). Total may not sum to 100 due to rounding.

                Based on Census data, the wards with the highest proportion of Christians (Underhill (55.8%); East Barnet (54.3%) and High Barnet (53.4%)) are generally concentrated in the North and East of the borough, whilst those with the lowest percentage of Christians (Golders Green (26.1%); Garden Suburb (26.5%) and Edgware (27.7%) are mainly in South and West of Barnet (see Table 1.11).[20]

                Table 1.11: The proportion of ward populations in Barnet by religion, 2011

                Table 1.11 The proportion of ward populations in Barnet by religion, 2011

                Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS, 2011). Census 2011 data. Table: KS209EW – Religion.

                The wards with the lowest proportion of Christians also have the highest percentage of Jewish people in their populations (Garden Suburb (38.2%); Golders Green (37.1%); Edgware (32.6%)). The areas with the lowest proportions of Jewish people (refer to Table 1.11 and Figure 1.9) are located in Burnt Oak (1.2%), Colindale (1.4%) and Underhill (3.1%).

                Figure 1.9: Jewish population (%) in Barnet, by ward, 2011

                Figure 1.9 Jewish population (%) in Barnet, by ward, 2011

                Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS, 2011). Census 2011 data.

                Figure 1.10 shows the distribution of the Muslim population in Barnet. The highest proportions of Muslims are found in wards concentrated in the West of the borough; Colindale (19.3%); Burnt Oak (18.4%) and West Hendon (17.1%). In contrast, the areas with the lowest percentage of Muslims are mainly located in the North of the borough (High Barnet (3.9%); East Barnet (6.1%); Oakleigh (6.7%)), with the exception of Garden Suburb (4.8%).

                Figure 1.10: Muslim population (%) in Barnet, by ward, 2011

                Figure 1.10 Muslim population (%) in Barnet, by ward, 2011

                Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS, 2011). Census 2011 data.

                The Barnet wards with the highest percentage of people claiming to have no religion are East Finchley (27.2%), High Barnet (23.1%) and Coppetts (22.8%), whereas those with the lowest proportion of their population having no religion are; Edgware (8.2%), Golders Green (10.1%) and West Hendon (11.4%).[21]

                 

                 

                [19] Office for National Statistics (ONS, 2019). Population by Religion, Borough. Data from the Annual Population Survey for 2018. Available at: https://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/percentage-population-religion-borough 

                [20] Office for National Statistics (ONS, 2011). Census 2011 data. Table: KS209EW – Religion: Ward details. Available at: https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/

                [21] Office for National Statistics (ONS, 2011). Census 2011 data. Table: KS209EW – Religion: Ward details. Available at: https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/

                 

                1.9 Population change and migration

                National insurance number (NINo) registrations provide an indication of the nationality of adult international migrants into Barnet. The borough has a rich blend of people from all corners of the world and in 2018/19, there were a total of 8,789 NINo registrations from Barnet residents from over 90 countries.[22]

                Figure 1.11 shows the proportions of overseas NINo registrations based on country of origin. Over a quarter of all overseas NINo registrations in 2018-19 were from Romanians (25.6%; n = 2,250), followed by Italians (9.2%; n = 807) and Greek people (5.2%; n = 458). The nationalities of the top  new migrant groups are displayed in the pie chart and all other groups combined into the “Other” group, which accounts for 22.0% of the total adult overseas NI registrations.

                Figure 1.11: National Insurance number (NINo) registrations for adult overseas nationals in Barnet, by country of origin, 2018-19

                Fig 1.11

                 

                Source: London Datastore (2020). National Insurance Number Registrations of Overseas Nationals, Borough and MSOA based on data from the Department for Work and Pensions.

                The GLA Borough Preferred Option projections for Barnet give an indication of the future net migration levels and population changes within the borough between 2020 and 2030. During this period, the natural change in population (i.e. the difference between the number of births and deaths) is projected to decrease slightly from roughly 2,700 in 2020 to 2,600 in 2030 (see Table 1.12).

                Table 1.12: Barnet population change and net migration, 2020-2030

                Table 1.12

                Source: Greater London Authority (GLA, 2019). Borough Preferred Option (BPO) data. [Data rounded to nearest 100].

                Population change takes decline in natural change, as well as net migration changes over the period, into consideration. In 2020, the net population of Barnet is predicted to grow by around 8,500 people. By the year 2030, this annual growth is projected to fall to 3,400 and by 2040, it is predicted to further decline to about 1,500 people (see Figure 1.12). Between 2020 and 2024, it is expected that the growth of the borough population will show a relatively sharp decline, before plateauing between 2024 and 2029. Growth is then predicted to decline until 2031, followed by a brief recovery in 2032, after which it is  projected to decline until 2037, followed by a period of plateauing.[23]

                Figure 1.12: Population change in Barnet, 2020-2040

                Fig 1.12

                Source: Greater London Authority (GLA, 2019). Borough Preferred Option (BPO) data.

                 

                [22] London Datastore (2020). National Insurance Number Registrations of Overseas Nationals, Borough and MSOA based on data from the Department for Work and Pensions. Available at: https://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/national-insurance-number-registrations-overseas-nationals-borough

                [23] Greater London Authority (GLA, 2018). Borough Preferred Option data.

                  1.10 Disability

                  Over one billion people or 15% of the world’s population have some form of disability, with between 110 and 190 million adults experiencing significant difficulties in functioning. Disability is often associated with other co-morbid conditions, lowered life expectancy, higher rates of risky behaviours (such as smoking, poor diet and physical inactivity) as well as reduced access to health care services, leading to unmet healthcare needs.[24]

                   

                  1.10.1  Learning Disability

                  In 2020, there are around 6,100 adults in the borough aged under 65 with learning disability and about 1,200 older people (aged 65+), giving a total of 7,300 adults for Barnet. Figure 1.13 shows the predicted number of people in Barnet in each age group estimated to have learning disabilities. Based on these estimates, 83% of people with a learning disability in Barnet are aged under 65 years.[25]

                  Figure 1.13: Estimated number of adults in Barnet with learning disability, by age group, 2020

                  Fig 1.13

                  Source: Projecting Older People Population Information System (POPPI) and Projecting Adult Needs and Service Information (PANSI).

                  Based on estimates, in 2020 there are around 1,600 adults in Barnet with moderate to severe learning disabilities, of which about 90% are aged under 65 (refer to Figure 1.14).[26]

                  Figure 1.14: Estimated number of adults in Barnet with moderate or severe learning disability, by age group, 2020

                  Fig 1.14

                  Sources: Projecting Older People Population Information System (POPPI) and Projecting Adult Needs and Service Information (PANSI). Figures may not sum due to rounding.

                  Between 2020 and 2035, the predicted number of adults in Barnet with moderate to severe learning disabilities is estimated to increase by 12% (see Figure 1.15).

                  Figure 1.15: Estimated number of adults in Barnet with moderate to severe learning disabilities, 2020-2035

                  Fig 1.15

                  Sources: Projecting Older People Population Information System (POPPI) and Projecting Adult Needs and Service Information (PANSI).

                   

                  1.10.2  Physical Disability

                  In contrast to learning disability, where prevalence decreases with increasing age, the prevalence of most long term conditions increases in older age groups. For example, the overall number of adults with diabetes in the borough is projected to increase by around 31%, from around 15,000 to 19,600 in 2035. However, the rise in the predicted number of people with diabetes changes considerably with age, so that the younger age groups typically involve smaller numbers of people and more modest changes (and even decreases). For adults aged 75 and over, the number of people with diabetes is projected to increase by 53% between 2020 and 2035 (see Figure 1.16). 

                  Similarly, the number of adults (aged 18+) in Barnet predicted to have some hearing loss is projected to grow by around 41% from about 58,900 in 2020 to 82,800 in 2035. However, for adults aged 85+, a 82% increase is predicted, compared with a decrease of 2%, in the 25-34 age group. Once again, the numbers with the condition increase with age as does the rate of increase in the numbers affected over the period. For severe hearing loss, the corresponding percentage changes over the period are 51%, 82% and -7% (decrease) for adults aged 18+, aged 85+ and 25-34 years old respectively.[27] 

                  Figure 1.16: Estimated number of adults with diabetes in Barnet, by age groups, 2020 – 2035

                  Fig 1.16

                  Source: Projecting Adult Needs and Service Information (PANSI). Figures may not sum due to rounding.

                  The prevalence of long standing conditions caused by stroke also increases with age, as does the rate of increase in the numbers affected by such conditions, over time. Overall, the number of adults (aged 18+) in Barnet with long standing conditions associated with stroke is estimated to increase by around 39%, from about 2,100 in 2020 to 2,900 in 2035. In contrast, the number aged 18-44 is predicted to decrease by about 3%, whilst for people aged 75+ the number with long standing conditions linked to stroke is projected to increase by 56% over the same time period.[28]

                  Figure 1.17: Estimated number of adults in Barnet with a long standing health condition caused by stroke in Barnet, by age groups, 2020-2035: 

                  Fig 1.17

                  Source: Projecting Older People Population Information System (POPPI). 

                   

                  1.10.3  Mental Disorders

                  Between 2020 and 2035, common mental disorders (including types of depression and anxiety, as well as obsessive compulsive disorder) and borderline personality disorder will both increase by 7% in Barnet adults (aged 18-64). Over the same period, the number of people with two or more psychiatric disorders is predicted to grow by 8%, psychosis by 6% and antisocial personality disorder by 10%, from around 8,400 in 2020 to 9,200 in 2035 (refer to Table 1.13).

                  Table 1.13: Estimated number of people aged 18-64 in Barnet with mental disorders, 2020 – 2035

                  Table 1.13

                  Source: Projecting Adult Needs and Service Information (PANSI).

                   

                  1.10.4  Dementia

                  Dementia is a syndrome (a condition characterised by a set of signs and symptoms) linked to deterioration in memory, thought and behaviour and associated with cognitive impairment. Currently, dementia affects about 50 million people worldwide at an estimated global cost of $818 billion. Whilst the strongest risk factor for dementia is age, it is not a natural part of aging, although most cases are found in older people and it represents one of the major causes of dependency and disability within older people worldwide. Dementia is incurable and there are about 10 million new cases annually worldwide, so it is predicted that the number of people with dementia may rise to 82 million by 2030 and 152 million by 2050.[29]

                  In 2020, there are an estimated 4,434 older people (aged 65+) with dementia in Barnet and older age groups are associated with higher dementia prevalence. Figure 1.18 shows the proportion of the dementia population (aged 65+) in Barnet falling into each age group. As expected, a lower proportion of those with dementia are in the younger age groups, with the percentage increasing until age 90+, when attrition due to death reduces the number of people living with dementia.

                  Figure 1.18: Proportion of people aged 65+ with dementia in Barnet, by 5-year age group, 2020

                  Fig 1.18

                  Source: Projecting Older People Population Information System (POPPI).

                  In Barnet, nearly half of older people with dementia (49%) are aged 85+, clearly illustrating the strong link between dementia and increasing age (Figure 1.19). Less than a third of older people in Barnet predicted to have dementia (31%; n= 1,363) of older people in Barnet with dementia are predicted to be under 80 years old.[30]

                  Figure 1.19: Number of older adults in Barnet with dementia, by 5-year age group, 2020

                  Fig 1.19

                  Source: Projecting Older People Population Information System (POPPI). Totals may not sum due to rounding.

                  Early onset dementia occurs in people aged under 65 years old and according to the World Health Organization (WHO) affects up to 9% of cases.[31] 

                  In Barnet, during 2020, there are an estimated 94 people aged between 30 and 64 years old with early onset dementia. As with late onset dementia cases, higher percentages of the early onset dementia patients are found in the older age groups (see Figure 1.20). The 60 to 64 year old group covers a 5-year age range, compared to 10 year age range for the other age groups, but still accounts for almost a third (31%) of predicted cases of early onset dementia in the borough. Almost half (49%) of early onset dementia cases in Barnet are projected to be aged 50-59 years old.

                  Figure 1.20: Proportion of people aged 30-64 with early onset dementia in Barnet, by age group, 2020

                  Fig 1.20

                  Source: Projecting Adult Needs and Service Information (PANSI).

                  Based on estimates for 2020, 1 in 5 cases of early onset dementia in Barnet (20%) occur in people aged under 50 years old (refer to Figure 1.21), further underlining the strong association between age and dementia prevalence.

                  Figure 1.21: Number of adults in Barnet with early onset dementia, by age group, 2020

                  Fig 1.21

                  Source: Projecting Adult Needs and Service Information (PANSI).

                  Most dementia cases emerging in Barnet in the coming years will be late onset and as the borough population continues to age, so will the number of older people living with dementia. Figure 1.22 shows the trend in the number of older people in Barnet predicted to have dementia between 2020 and 2035. Based on these POPPI predictions, the number older Barnet residents with dementia will increase by almost a third by 2030 (32%) and by over a half (53%) by 2035.[32]

                  Figure 1.22: Trend in the number of older adults with dementia in Barnet, 2020-2035

                  Fig 1.22

                  Source: Projecting Older People Population Information System (POPPI).

                  A detailed assessment of the dementia needs of the Barnet population in terms of prevalence, diagnosis, risk factors and access to services can be found here

                   

                  [24] World Health Organisation (WHO, 2018). Disability and health factsheet. Available at:http://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/disability-and-health

                  [25] Projecting Older People Population Information System (POPPI, 2018) available at: www.poppi.org.uk  and Projecting Adult Needs and Service Information (PANSI, 2016) available at: www.pansi.org.uk 

                  [26]  Projecting Older People Population Information System (POPPI, 2018) available at: www.poppi.org.uk  and Projecting Adult Needs and Service Information (PANSI, 2016) available at: www.pansi.org.uk 

                  [27] Projecting Adult Needs and Service Information (PANSI, 2018). Available at: www.pansi.org.uk 

                  [28] Projecting Older People Population Information System (POPPI, 2018). Available at: www.poppi.org.uk   

                  [29] World Health Organization (WHO, 2019). Dementia factsheet. Available at: http://www.who.int/en/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/dementia

                  [30] Projecting Older People Population Information System (POPPI, 2018). Available at: www.poppi.org.uk   

                  [31] World Health Organization (WHO, 2019). Dementia factsheet. Available at: http://www.who.int/en/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/dementia

                  [32] Projecting Older People Population Information System (POPPI, 2018). Available at: www.poppi.org.uk

                   

                  1.11 Indices of Deprivation

                  The Index of Multiple Deprivation (IoD2019) is a widely used measure of relative deprivation which allows comparison between areas in England, based on either scores or ranks. The higher the score, the more deprived the area or the lower the rank, the more deprived the area.[33]

                  The basic unit of comparison used by the IoD2019 is the LSOA (Lower Super Output Area), which is a small area with 1,500 people on average. The IoD2019 ranks deprivation in each small area (LSOA) within England from 1st (most deprived area) to 32,844th (least deprived area), based on deprivation score. In this way, small areas and larger ones (e.g. local authorities) can be compared in terms of deprivation and the most deprived areas identified. The IoD2019 does not however quantify how deprived or affluent an area is, measure real change in deprivation over time or allow comparisons with small areas in other countries within the United Kingdom.[34]

                  On the IoD2019, Barnet is ranked 184 out of 317 local authorities in England[35] and 26th out of 33 local authorities in London. The IoD2019 score for Barnet is 16.148, which makes it one of the least deprived boroughs in London.[36]

                  The relative deprivation of local authorities in London based on the number of neighbourhoods (LSOAs) in the most deprived in England is depicted by Figure 1.23.[37] As can be seen from this map, there is considerable variation in deprivation between local authorities in the capital, ranging from Barking & Dagenham with an IoD2019 score of 32.768 through to Richmond upon Thames (9.425).[38]

                   

                  Figure 1.23: Relative deprivation based on LSOAs in London local authorities, IoD2019

                  Fig 1.23

                  Source: Indices of Deprivation 2019, Ministry of Housing, Communities & Local Government (MHCLG)

                  Seven domains are used to produce the overall IoD2019 score for an area. Each domain can be assessed separately to explore a particular type of deprivation.

                  The domains used in constructing the IoD2019 are as follows:

                  • Income: measures the proportion of the population experiencing deprivation based on low income.
                  • Employment: assesses the share of the working-age population in an area involuntarily excluded from the labour market.
                  • Education, Skills and Training: measures the lack of skills and attainment in the local population.
                  • Health Deprivation and Disability: looks at the impairment of quality of life and risk of premature death through poor mental or physical health.
                  • Crime: assesses the risk of material and personal victimisation at a local level.
                  • Barriers to Housing and Services: measures the physical and financial and physical accessibility of housing and local services.
                  • Living Environment: assesses the quality of the local environment.

                  When looking at relative deprivation, a small area can be described as falling within the most deprived 10%, 20%, 30% etc. in England. To facilitate this, “deciles” are published alongside the IoD2019 ranks. These deciles are calculated by ranking the 32,844 small areas in England and then dividing them into ten equal groups, which range from the most deprived 10% of small areas nationally (decile 1) to the least deprived 10% of small areas (decile 10).[39]

                  Figure 1.24 illustrates the overall IoD2019 for Barnet, in terms of deciles. The wards with a higher overall IoD2019 score tend to be concentrated in the west of the borough (e.g. Burnt Oak, Colindale, West Hendon, Golders Green and Childs Hill) and to have multiple areas of higher deprivation, identified as darker areas on the map. However, the map clearly shows that pockets of relatively high deprivation exist in wards with lower overall deprivation, such as Brunswick Park and Edgware.

                  Figure 1.24: Index of Multiple Deprivation (IoD2019) deciles for Barnet

                  Fig 1.24

                   

                  Key overall

                  Source: Ministry of Housing, Communities & Local Government (2019). Indices of Deprivation 2019 explorer.  Indices of deprivation: 2019 and 2015. © Crown copyright. Available at: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/english-indices-of-deprivation-2019-mapping-resources 

                  Figure 1.25 depicts the IoD2019 Income Deprivation Domain (which looks at the proportion of the population who experience deprivation based on low income) by deciles. The wards localized in the west and south of the borough with a greater overall deprivation have this mirrored by increased levels of income deprivation (shown on the map as darker blue patches). However, wards such as Brunswick Park, with less deprivation overall, also have small areas within them where income deprivation is pronounced.

                  Figure 1.25: Income domain of IoD2019 by deciles for Barnet

                  Fig 1.25
                  Key Income

                  Source: Ministry of Housing, Communities & Local Government (2019). Indices of Deprivation 2019 explorer.  Indices of deprivation: 2019 and 2015. © Crown copyright. Available at: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/english-indices-of-deprivation-2019-mapping-resources 

                  Whilst greater employment deprivation is generally found in the wards in the west and south of the borough, there are small areas within less deprived wards (such as Brunswick Park) which also have relatively high employment deprivation, shown as blue areas on the map (refer to Figure 1.26 below).

                  Figure 1.26: Employment domain of IoD2019 by deciles for Barnet

                  Fig 1.26
                  Key Employment

                  Source: Ministry of Housing, Communities & Local Government (2019). Indices of Deprivation 2019 explorer.  Indices of deprivation: 2019 and 2015. © Crown copyright. Available at: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/english-indices-of-deprivation-2019-mapping-resources 

                  The crime domain of the IoD2019, shows that the risk of victimization (personal and material) is relatively high across many areas of Barnet, depicted by the darker blue areas in Figure 1.27. Even wards with less overall deprivation (such as Garden Suburb), have small areas (LSOAs) with relatively high crime deprivation.[40]

                  Figure 1.27: Crime domain of the IoD2019 by deciles, for Barnet

                  Fig 1.27
                  Key crime

                  Source: Ministry of Housing, Communities & Local Government (2019). Indices of Deprivation 2019 explorer.  Indices of deprivation: 2019 and 2015. © Crown copyright. Available at: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/english-indices-of-deprivation-2019-mapping-resources 

                  The Health Deprivation and Disability domain of IoD2019 looks at impairment of quality of life and risk of premature death through poor mental or physical health. Although there are small pockets of relatively high health and disability deprivation in the East Barnet and Brunswick Park wards in the North East of the borough, most of the borough shows relatively low health deprivation compared to England (refer to Figure 1.28). This reflects the relatively high life expectancy in Barnet for both males and females.

                  Figure 1.28: Health Deprivation and Disability domain of IoD2019 by deciles for Barnet

                  Fig 1.28
                  Key health

                  Source: Ministry of Housing, Communities & Local Government (2019). Indices of Deprivation 2019 explorer.  Indices of deprivation: 2019 and 2015. © Crown copyright. Available at: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/english-indices-of-deprivation-2019-mapping-resources 

                   

                  [33] Ministry of Housing, Communities & Local Government (2019). The English Indices of Deprivation 2019 (IoD2019). Available at: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/835115/IoD2019_Statistical_Release.pdf

                  [34] Ministry of Housing, Communities & Local Government (2019). The English Indices of Deprivation 2019 (IoD2019). Available at: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/835115/IoD2019_Statistical_Release.pdf

                  [35] Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government (2020). IoD interactive dashboard. Available at: https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiOTdjYzIyNTMtMTcxNi00YmQ2LWI1YzgtMTUyYzMxOWQ3NzQ2IiwidCI6ImJmMzQ2ODEwLTljN2QtNDNkZS1hODcyLTI0YTJlZjM5OTVhOCJ9

                  [36]  Ministry of Housing, Communities & Local Government (2019). The English Indices of Deprivation 2019 (IoD2019). File 10: Local authority district summaries. Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/english-indices-of-deprivation-2019 

                  [37] Greater London Authority (2019). London Datastore: Indices of Deprivation 2019 Initial Analysis. Available at: https://data.london.gov.uk/blog/indices-of-deprivation-2019-initial-analysis/

                  [38] Ministry of Housing, Communities & Local Government (2019). The English Indices of Deprivation 2019 (IoD2019). File 10: Local authority district summaries. Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/english-indices-of-deprivation-2019

                  [39] Ministry of Housing, Communities & Local Government (2019). The English Indices of Deprivation 2019 (IoD2019). File 2: Domains of deprivation. Available at: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/835115/IoD2019_Statistical_Release.pdf

                  [40] Ministry of Housing, Communities & Local Government (2019). Indices of Deprivation 2019 explorer. Indices of deprivation: 2019 and 2015. Available at: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/english-indices-of-deprivation-2019-mapping-resources