Socio economic & environmental context
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2.1 Key facts
- Between 2018 and 2039, the number of households in Barnet is projected to increase by 37%, which is over twice the growth for England over the same period (18%).
- Barnet is an expensive place to live with private rents considerably higher than the national average and an average house price of £540,275 (in August 2018).
- The statutory homelessness rate (the rate of homelessness acceptances per 1,000 households) was 2.88 per 1,000 in Barnet during 2017-18, which was significantly higher than the England average (2.41 / 1,000), but significantly lower than London rate (4.23 / 1,000).
- In 2017-18, the rate of temporary accommodation in Barnet (16.70 per 1,000 households) was significantly higher than both London (14.93 / 1,000) and England (3.40 / 1,000).
- The number of older people (aged 65+) living alone in Barnet is predicted to increase by two-thirds (66%) between 2018 and 2035, from about 13,300 to 22,100.
- There were an estimated 13,804 households in Barnet in fuel poverty during 2016, which equated to 9.7% of households; this was significantly lower than both the London and England averages.
- Between 2018 and 2035, older people (aged 65+) in Barnet, limited a little by long term illness are projected to increase by 57%. Over the same period, the number of older people in the borough limited a lot by long term illness is predicted to rise by 63%.
2.2 Strategic needs
- The number of households in Barnet is predicted to increase from 157,000 in 2018 to 192,000 by 2030, a rise of 22%, which will have serious implications for services, infrastructure and budgets. Over the same period, the number of households in Outer London is estimated to increase by 19% and in England by 11%.
- Housing affordability is a major concern with both rents and house prices in Barnet high compared to the national average.
- Between 2008-9 and 2017-18, there was no significant change in the rate of statutory homelessness in Barnet, however in 2017-18, the rate of statutory homelessness in the borough was significantly higher than the England average.
- Over three-quarters of older adults in Barnet are home owners, indicating that a substantial majority of this age group are living in their own homes in the community, against a background of limiting long term illness and possible social isolation.
- The older population (aged 65+) in Barnet is predicted to increase by a third between 2018 and 2030. Although this age group varies considerably in terms of long term illness, mobility and independence, a variety of housing options will need to be available to meet the needs and expectations of this growing segment of the population.
- As Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) pollution within the borough is largely due to transport, areas of higher NO2 pollution are mainly concentrated around the main roads and junctions, including the A1, M1, A406 and A1000.
- Over half of the journeys originating in Barnet are made by car (54%), which is twice the proportion of journeys made by active transport (cycling or walking), accounting for around 27% of trips started within the borough. This disparity clearly underlines the importance of promoting ways of reducing car dependency in Barnet and supporting active travel initiatives.
- For the year to June 2018, both the employment and unemployment rates for Barnet are similar to both London and England, so there is still room for improvement.
- The proportion of Barnet adults in contact with secondary mental health services in employment is significantly lower than the England average (between March 2017 and March 2018).
- During 2017, 62.2% of economically active working age people in Barnet had an NVQ4 qualification or higher which was similar to London (58.1%), so there is still potential for further training and higher education for borough residents.
- Median gross weekly earnings in Barnet have increased significantly between 2006 and 2018 and are significantly higher than the median for Great Britain. For 2018, gross weekly earnings in the borough (£674.10) are similar to the median earnings for London (£670.80).
2.3.1 Number and size of households in Barnet
Based on projections from the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government, the number of households in Barnet is predicted to increase from 157,000 in 2018 to 192,000 by 2030, a rise of 22%. Over the same period, the number of households in Outer London is estimated to increase by 19% and in England by 11%. Between 2018 and 2039, the projected increases in the number of households for Barnet, Outer London and England are 37%, 31% and 18% respectively. So, the projected percentage rise in the number of households in Barnet over the next 20 years will be roughly double that estimated for England. Figure 2.1 shows the predicted rise in the number of households in the borough between 2018 and 2039.[1]
Figure 2.1: Number of households (thousands) in Barnet projected for 2018 – 2039
Source: Ministry of Housing, Communities & Local Government.
The estimated household size for Barnet in 2019 is 2.51 persons per household, which is similar to both Outer London (2.51) and England (2.32). Over the next 20 years, the household size is predicted to decrease for Barnet, Outer London and England, but in all cases, these reductions are not statistically significant (see Figure 2.2). Similarly, the household sizes in 2039, for Barnet (2.27 people per household), Outer London (2.33) and England (2.21) remain similar.[2]
Figure 2.2: Household size in Barnet, Outer London and England, 2019-2039
Source: Ministry of Housing, Communities & Local Government.
[1] Ministry of Housing, Communities & Local Government (2016). Statistical data set: Live tables on household projections. The latest data tables on household projections. Table 406. Available at:https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/live-tables-on-household-projections#history
[2] Ministry of Housing, Communities & Local Government (2016). Statistical data set: Live tables on household projections. The latest data tables on household projections. Table 427. Available at:https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/live-tables-on-household-projections#history
2.3.2 Cost and affordability of housing in Barnet
Since Barnet is London’s most populous borough in 2018 and its population is projected to continue to increase, more homes will need to be built across the types of housing tenure. The high cost of home ownership in Barnet has led to a tenure shift away from owning a property and towards privately rented accommodation, so that over a quarter of households in the borough now rent from a private landlord. Between 2001 and 2016, the use of privately rented accommodation in Barnet rose from 17% to 26% of households.[3]
Figure 2.3 shows the average house price in Barnet for all property types, from January 2001 to August 2018. During this period, the average house price in Barnet rose by 208% from £175,475 to £540,275. Similarly, the cost of renting accommodation in Barnet is high compared to the national average. Based on monthly rents recorded between 1 April 2017 and 31st March 2018, the median monthly rent for Barnet is £1,350 / month, which is considerably higher than England (£675), but similar to both Outer London (£1,295) and London overall (£1,400).[4]
Figure 2.3: Average house price for all property types in Barnet, January 2001 – August 2018
Source: UK Land Registry (2018). House Price Index data.
As of October 2018, over 10,000 houses have been built in Barnet since 2011, of which 2,657 have been classified as “affordable” for sale or rent. It is predicted that 35,000 new homes will be delivered during the next 15 years, based on the Barnet Housing Trajectory. However, based on a recent Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA) for 2016-2041, there are a total of 76,500 houses required for Barnet over that period, of which 58,900 (77%) are market housing and 17,600 (23%) are affordable housing. This represents a total of 3,060 houses per year, of which 704 are affordable housing.[5]
Figure 2.4 shows the breakdown of this annual housing requirement in terms of the numbers of market and affordable housing required for each dwelling type. Annually, the total requirement of three-bedroom houses is 1,144, which is 37% of the total annual requirement for the borough. The proportion of each dwelling type required annually is shown in Figure 2.5. Only 1% of the annual estimated housing requirement is for affordable 5-bedroom houses in the borough, rising to almost a third (31%) for three-bedroom houses on the market.[6]
Figure 2.4: The number of houses required annually in Barnet, by dwelling type, during 2016-2041
Source: Barnet Housing Strategy 2019-2024 (Draft October 2018).
Figure 2.5: The proportion of dwelling types required annually in Barnet, during 2016-2041
Source: Barnet Housing Strategy 2019-2024 (Draft October 2018).
[3] London Borough of Barnet (2018). Barnet Housing Strategy 2019-2024. Draft October 2018 (p.3). Available at: https://barnet.moderngov.co.uk/documents/s48745/Housing%20Strategy%202019-2024%20Appendix%201.pdf
[4] Valuation Office Agency (2018). Official Statistics: Private rental market summary statistics - April 2017 to March 2018. All Tables – Table 2.7. Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/private-rental-market-summary-statistics-april-2017-to-march-2018
[5] London Borough of Barnet (2018). Barnet Housing Strategy 2019-2024. Draft October 2018 (p.12). Available at: https://barnet.moderngov.co.uk/documents/s48745/Housing%20Strategy%202019-2024%20Appendix%201.pdf
[6] London Borough of Barnet (2018). Barnet Housing Strategy 2019-2024. Draft October 2018 (p.12). Available at: https://barnet.moderngov.co.uk/documents/s48745/Housing%20Strategy%202019-2024%20Appendix%201.pdf
2.3.3 Homelessness and Overcrowding
A lack of affordable housing in Barnet could result in either homelessness or overcrowding. Between 2008-9 and 2017-18, there was no significant change in the rate of statutory homelessness in Barnet. However, there were 444 households accepted as statutory homeless in Barnet during 2017-18, compared to 324 in 2008-9. Fig 2.6 shows the change in statutory homelessness rate in Barnet, London and England, over this period. The statutory homelessness rate (the rate of homelessness acceptances per 1,000 households) was 2.88 per 1,000 in Barnet during 2017-18, which was significantly higher than the England average (2.41 / 1,000), but significantly lower than London rate (4.23 / 1,000).[7]
Figure 2.6: Statutory homelessness rate / 1,000 households for Barnet, London and England, 2008-9 to 2017-18
Source: Ministry of Housing, Communities & Local Government (2018).
There is a duty for the local housing authority to ensure suitable temporary accommodation for people who have been identified as eligible, in priority need and unintentionally homeless, until a settled home becomes available.[8] Figure 2.7 shows the rate of temporary accommodation per 1,000 households in Barnet, London and England, for 2008-9 to 2017-18. The number of households in temporary accommodation per 1,000 households in both Barnet and London did not change significantly between 2008-9 and 2017-18. Over this period, the rate of temporary accommodation in England was significantly lower than both London and Barnet, however the national rate did show a small but significant rise from 2.97 to 3.40 per 1,000 households. In 2017-18, the rate of temporary accommodation in Barnet was 16.70 per 1,000 households, which was significantly higher than the London rate of 14.93 per 1,000 households.[9]
Figure 2.7: Rate of temporary accommodation per 1,000 households in Barnet, London and England for 2008-9 to 2017-18
Source: Ministry of Housing, Communities & Local Government (2018).
According to the last Census in 2011, there were 13,913 households in Barnet with a bed occupancy rating of -1 or less (i.e. the household has one or more fewer bedrooms than the standard requirement).[10] Figure 2.8 shows the percentage of households in Barnet, London, England and London local authorities which were overcrowded (with a bed occupancy of -1 or less) at the time of the 2011 Census.
Just over one in ten households in Barnet (10.2%) were overcrowded at the time of the 2011 Census, which was significantly higher than the England average (4.8%), but significantly lower than London overall (11.6%). Based on percentage of overcrowded households, Barnet was the 12th lowest borough in London, with Newham (25.4%) the most overcrowded and Richmond upon Thames (4.0%) the least.[11]
Figure 2.8: Percentage of overcrowded households in Barnet, London and England and London local authorities, 2011
Source: Public Health Profiles (PHE, 2018). Public Health Profiles.
[7] Ministry of Housing, Communities & Local Government (2018). Statistical data set: Live tables on homelessness. Homelessness summary local authority level tables. Table 784: local authorities' action under the homelessness provisions of the Housing Acts, financial years 2004-05 to 2017-18. Available at:https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/live-tables-on-homelessness#history
[8] Public Health England (PHE, 2018). Public Health Profiles. 1.15ii - Statutory homelessness - households in temporary accommodation, Barnet. Indicator Definitions and Supporting Information. Available at:https://fingertips.phe.org.uk/search/statutory%20homelessness#page/6/gid/1/pat/6/par/E12000007/ati/102/are/E09000003/iid/11502/age/-1/sex/4
[9] Ministry of Housing, Communities & Local Government (2018). Statistical data set: Live tables on homelessness. Homelessness summary local authority level tables. Table 784: local authorities' action under the homelessness provisions of the Housing Acts, financial years 2004-05 to 2017-18. Available at:https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/live-tables-on-homelessness#history
[10] Public Health England (PHE, 2018). Public Health Profiles. Household overcrowding: percentage of households that are overcrowded. Indicator Definitions and Supporting Information. Available at:https://fingertips.phe.org.uk/search/overcrowding#page/6/gid/1/pat/6/par/E12000007/ati/101/are/E09000003/iid/90416/age/-1/sex/4
[11] Public Health Profiles (PHE, 2018). Public Health Profiles. Household overcrowding: percentage of households that are overcrowded. Available at:https://fingertips.phe.org.uk/search/overcrowding#page/3/gid/1/pat/6/par/E12000007/ati/101/are/E09000003/iid/90416/age/-1/sex/4
2.3.4 Older people living alone or with limiting long term illness
As can be seen from Figure 2.9, over three-quarters of older adults in Barnet are home owners. This pattern continues into the 85+ age group, indicating that a substantial majority of this group are living in their own homes in the community, against a background of limiting long term illness and possible social isolation.[12]
Figure 2.9: Older people (aged 65+) in Barnet by housing tenure, 2011
Source: Projecting Older People Population Information System (POPPI, 2016) based on 2011 Census data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
As the older population in Barnet expands over the coming years, so will the number of older people living alone. According to POPPI, it is estimated that 20% of males and 30% of females aged 65-74 live alone, but for people aged 75+, this rises to 34% of males and 61% of females within that age group. Figure 2.10 depicts the number of older people in Barnet aged 75+ who are estimated to be living alone, between 2018 and 2035. Over this period, the number of older people living alone in Barnet is predicted to increase by two-thirds (66%) from about 13,300 to 22,100.[13]
Figure 2.10: Number of older people (aged 75+) in Barnet predicted to be living alone, 2018-2035
Source: Projecting Older People Population Information System (POPPI, 2016) based on 2011 Census data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
The older population (aged 65+) in Barnet is predicted to increase by a third between 2018 and 2030.[14] Although this age group varies considerably in terms of long term illness, mobility and independence, a variety of housing options will need to be available to meet the needs and expectations of this growing elderly population.
Figure 2.11 shows the projected number of older people (aged 65+) in Barnet with a limiting long-term illness whose day to day activities are limited a little and a lot, for 2018 to 2035. Over this period, the number of older people limited a little by long term illness is predicted to rise from 13,444 in 2018 to 21,061 in 2035, an increase of 57%. For those older people limited a lot by long term illness, the increase is projected to be 63%, rising from 12,093 in 2018 to 19,727 in 2035.[15]
Figure 2.11: Projected number of older people in Barnet with a limiting long-term illness whose day to day activities are limited a little or a lot, 2018-2035
Source: Projecting Older People Population Information System (POPPI, 2016) based on 2011 Census data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
[12] Projecting Older People Population Information System (POPPI, 2016). Tenure. Proportion of population aged 65 and over by age and tenure, i.e., owned, rented from council, other social rented, private rented or living rent free, year 2011. Available at: www.poppi.org.uk/
[13] Projecting Older People Population Information System (POPPI, 2016). Living alone: People aged 65 and over living alone, by age and gender, projected to 2035. Available at: www.poppi.org.uk/
[14] Greater London Authority (GLA, 2018). Borough Preferred Option (BPO) data.
[15] Projecting Older People Population Information System (POPPI, 2016). Limiting long term illness: People aged 65 and over with a limiting long-term illness, by age, projected to 2035. Available at: www.poppi.org.uk/
2.3.5 Fuel Poverty
Fuel poverty is caused by energy inefficient housing, low incomes and high energy prices. In England, it is measured using the “low income-high cost” definition, in which a household is in fuel poverty if its income is below the poverty line (taking energy costs into account) and its energy costs are above what is typical for the household type.[16] Based on this definition, 11.1% of households in England in 2016 were estimated to be in fuel poverty, compared to 10.0% in London.[17]
Figure 2.12 shows the percentage of households in Barnet and other London local authorities which were estimated to be in fuel poverty during 2016. According to the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, there were an estimated 13,804 households in Barnet in fuel poverty in 2016. This equated to 9.7% of households in the borough, which was significantly lower than both the London and England averages for fuel poverty.[18]
Figure 2.12: Percentage of households in Barnet and London local authorities in fuel poverty, 2016
Source: Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy (2018).
[16] National Energy Action (2018). Fuel Poverty Statistics: Fuel poverty in the UK.
[17] Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy (2018). National Statistics: Fuel poverty trends 2018. Long term trends under the Low Income High Costs indicator (2003-2016 data). Table 4. Available at:https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/fuel-poverty-trends-2018
[18] Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy (2018). Official Statistics: Sub-regional fuel poverty data 2018. Sub-regional fuel poverty, 2016 data. Table 2. Available at:https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/sub-regional-fuel-poverty-data-2018
2.4 Environment
2.4.1 Carbon Dioxide Emissions
In 2016, carbon dioxide (CO2) accounted for 81% of the greenhouse gas emissions in the UK. Between 2005 and 2016, the estimated CO2 emissions for Barnet, Greater London and England fell by 40%, 43% and 38% respectively. Over this period, CO2 emissions in Barnet decreased from 5.4 tonnes per capita in 2005 to 3.3 tonnes per capita in 2016, so that the borough was ranked 17th within the London boroughs on this measure. For 2016, the London borough with the highest estimated CO2 emissions per capita was Westminster (8.5 tonnes), whilst the lowest emissions were predicted for Hackney (2.4 tonnes).[19]
Figure 2.13: CO2 emissions (tonnes per capita) for Barnet, Greater London and England, 2005-2016
Source: Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy (2018).
[19] Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy (2018). National Statistics: UK local authority and regional carbon dioxide emissions national statistics: 2005 to 2016. 2005 to 2016 UK local and regional CO2 emissions – data tables. Contents and full dataset: Local Authority CO2 emissions estimates 2005-2016 (kt CO2). Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/uk-local-authority-and-regional-carbon-dioxide-emissions-national-statistics-2005-2016
2.4.2 Air Pollution
According to the World Health Organisation, 90% of the world’s population breathes air with high levels of pollutants, leading to around 7 million deaths annually due to air pollution.[20] Toxic air is the leading environmental risk of early death, responsible for one in nine of all fatalities (i.e. more than HIV, malaria and tuberculosis combined). The global economic cost of air pollution is substantial, due to lost lives and ill health and has been estimated at $1m / minute, when welfare costs are taken into consideration.[21] In the UK alone, there are around 20,700 deaths each year due to air pollution.[22]
Combustion of fuels creates oxides of Nitrogen, including Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2), which in London is mainly due to road traffic and heating systems. Long term exposure to NO2 can produce respiratory symptoms and affect lung function, with high concentrations causing inflammation of the airways. Particulate matter (PM) is a complex mixture of particles of various composition from a variety of sources including road traffic, the construction industry, forest fires, sea salt and Saharan sand. Particulate matter is categorised according to size, with PM10 made up of particles with a diameter of 10 microns (µm) or less. PM10 worsens cardiovascular and respiratory conditions as particles are deposited deep within the respiratory system. The smaller the particles, the deeper they can be deposited in the respiratory system.[23]
Continuous air quality monitoring of Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) and PM10 takes place at two sites within the borough; Tally Ho Corner and Chalgrove School and current monitoring data is available through Air Quality England.[24] As can be seen from Figure 2.14, the data from both these sites provide readings, as well as ratings based on pollution summary index scores from 1 (Low) to 10 (Very High).[25]
Figure 2.14: Summary of output from Barnet’s active air monitoring sites
Source: Air Quality England (2018). London Borough of Barnet.
Due to the adverse effects of air pollutants on human health, the European Union has introduced extensive legislation and established numerous standards relating to pollutants in the air. For both NO2 and PM10 the air quality standard is 40 µg/m³, based on an annual mean.[26]
Figure 2.15 shows the mean annual concentrations of NO2 in Barnet, modelled for 2013. Where the Nitrogen Dioxide concentration exceeds the EU limit, the map is coloured yellow, orange or red. As NO2 pollution is largely due to transport, these areas are concentrated around the main roads and junctions within the borough, including the A1, M1, A406 and A1000.[27]
Figure 2.15: Modelled annual mean concentrations of NO2 in Barnet, 2016
Source: London Borough of Barnet (2016). Air Quality Action Plan 2017-2022 (p.8).
Figure 2.16 depicts the modelled mean annual concentrations of PM10 in Barnet, for 2013. Yellow areas on the map show where the PM10 concentration exceeds the EU limit, which is mainly localised to the A1 and A406 roads in the south of the borough.[28]
Figure 2.16: Annual mean concentrations of PM10 in Barnet, 2016
Source: London Borough of Barnet (2016). Air Quality Action Plan 2017-2022 (p.9).
The Mayor of London is implementing measures designed to improve the quality of air for Londoners, including a toxicity charge for more polluting vehicles, retrofitting the fleet of London buses and introducing an Ultra-Low Emission Zone (ULEZ).[29]
Locally, the London Borough of Barnet has a statutory duty to produce an action plan to reduce pollution within the borough and reduce residents’ exposure to pollutants. The Air Quality Action Plan 2017-2022 for Barnet identifies the two main sources of air pollution in the borough as transport and construction and prioritises a number of actions to help reduce the impact from these against a background of major regeneration.[30]
[20] World Health Organisation (WHO, 2018). How air pollution is destroying our health.
[21] Carrington, D. (2018). The briefing: Air pollution: everything you should know about a public health emergency. The Guardian newspaper. Available at:https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/nov/05/air-pollution-everything-you-should-know-about-a-public-health-emergency
[22] Breathelife (2016). Air Quality & Health Burden in The United Kingdom.
[23] Greater London Authority (GLA, 2013). Air Quality in Barnet: A Guide for Public Health Professionals. Available at: https://www.london.gov.uk/sites/default/files/air_quality_for_public_health_professionals_-_lb_barnet.pdf
[24] London Borough of Barnet (2018). Air quality monitoring: Continuous monitoring. Available at:https://www.barnet.gov.uk/citizen-home/environmental-health/air-quality/air-quality-monitoring.html
[25] Air Quality England (2018). London Borough of Barnet. Available at:http://www.airqualityengland.co.uk/local-authority/?la_id=185
[26] European Commission (2018). Air Quality Standards. Available at:http://ec.europa.eu/environment/air/quality/standards.htm
[27] London Borough of Barnet (2016). Air Quality Action Plan 2017-2022. Available at:https://www.barnet.gov.uk/citizen-home/environmental-health/air-quality/air-quality-action-plan.html
[28] London Borough of Barnet (2016). Air Quality Action Plan 2017-2022. Available at:https://www.barnet.gov.uk/citizen-home/environmental-health/air-quality/air-quality-action-plan.html
[29] Greater London Authority (GLA, 2018). How we're cleaning up London's air. Available at:https://www.london.gov.uk/what-we-do/environment/pollution-and-air-quality/how-were-cleaning-londons-air
[30] London Borough of Barnet (2016). Air Quality Action Plan 2017-2022. Available at:https://www.barnet.gov.uk/citizen-home/environmental-health/air-quality/air-quality-action-plan.html
2.4.3 Green Spaces
According to the World Health Organization (WHO), green urban areas are a “fundamental component of any urban ecosystem.” Green spaces play an important role in facilitating physical activity and relaxation, moderating temperatures and filtering air pollution, including particulate matter. They can also exert a positive effect on mental health and wellbeing, including the alleviation of depression and reduction of stress.[31]
The value and benefits of green spaces in Barnet is clearly recognised in the Council’s Parks and Open Spaces Strategy 2016-2026. As of 2015, the total area of parks within the borough was 465.2 hectares (roughly 5.4% of the surface area of Barnet). However, the total green space provision of the borough is 888 hectares (nearly 10% of the area), when the broader definition of green space (which includes parks, sports sites, playgrounds, natural / semi-natural green spaces and other miscellaneous locations) is adopted.[32]
It is estimated that between March 2015 and February 2016, just over a fifth (22.0%) of Barnet residents visited the natural environment in the previous 7 days for reasons of health or exercise. This is the 4th highest of the London boroughs, but still similar to both the London (18.0%) and England (17.9%) averages.[33]
London Borough of Barnet (LBB) are committed to making the borough’s parks and green spaces “amongst the best in London” and to use innovative approaches to maintain these areas in order to “achieve wider public health priorities for the borough.” An action plan has been developed to realise this vision with outcomes grouped into three categories; environmental, social and economic (see Figure 2.17).[34]
Figure 2.17: Summary of outcomes of the action plan linked to the Parks and Open Spaces Strategy
Source: London Borough of Barnet (2016). Parks and Open Spaces Strategy 2016-2026 (p. 28).
[31] World Health Organization (WHO, 2018). Health and sustainable development: Urban green spaces.
[32] London Borough of Barnet (2016). Parks and Open Spaces: Our Strategy for Barnet 2016-2026. Available at: https://open.barnet.gov.uk/dataset/open-spaces-strategy
[33] Public Health England (2018). Public Health Profiles. 1.16 - Utilisation of outdoor space for exercise/health reasons. Mar 2015 - Feb 2016. Available at:https://fingertips.phe.org.uk/search/green%20space#page/3/gid/1/pat/6/par/E12000007/ati/102/are/E09000003/iid/11601/age/164/sex/4
[34] London Borough of Barnet (2016). Parks and Open Spaces: Our Strategy for Barnet 2016-2026 (p.25). Available at: https://open.barnet.gov.uk/dataset/open-spaces-strategy
2.4.4 Transport
Transport can exert both a positive and negative impact on health. Active travel (including cycling and walking) as well as other forms of direct physical activity offer a variety of health benefits,[35] including the lowering of risks associated with cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes, depression, dementia and some forms of cancer (see Figure 2.18).[36] Conversely, transport can be linked to negative outcomes, such as traffic pollution and noise, accidents and physical inactivity associated with car dependency.[37]
Figure 2.18: Physical activity (active travel) benefits for adults
Source: Department of Health and Social Care (2016).
In recognition of the complex challenges facing the capital, the Mayor of London has developed a major transport strategy aimed at reducing car dependency, lowering congestion, improving air quality and promoting active and sustainable travel, through a “Healthy Streets Approach.” This approach creates a framework for placing health at the heart of future planning using 10 evidence based indicators assessing peoples’ day-to-day experience of London’s streets (refer to Figure 2.19). At a local level, implementation of the strategy is through a local implementation plan for each borough.[38]
Figure 2.19: Ten evidence based indicators of healthy streets
Source: Greater London Authority (GLA, 2018). Mayor’s Transport Strategy (p.19) [Lucy Saunders].
Barnet has an extensive network of roads, totalling 695.5 km in length and although 29% of households do not have a car, 54% of journeys originating in the borough are made by car. This represents twice the proportion of trips made using active transport (walking or cycling), which accounts for 27% of trips starting in the borough (see Figure 2.20).[39] This disparity clearly underlines the importance of supporting active travel initiatives and promoting ways of reducing car dependency in Barnet, with a view to realising the vision and delivering the outcomes of the Mayor’s Transport Strategy.
Figure 2.20: Mode of transport used in journeys starting in Barnet, 2017
Source: Transport for London (2017). Factsheet for Barnet.
Public Transport Access Levels (PTALs) assess how well a location is connected to public transport i.e. the density of the public transport network in a specific area. Transport for London (TfL) has created the Web-based Connectivity Assessment Tool (WebCAT), which allows the assessment of PTALs for the whole of London and specific locations within the capital. This tool combines walking time to the public transport network with waiting times, to assess the level of access to public transport. Figure 2.21 shows the PTAL map for Barnet from WebCAT for Barnet, modelled for 2021. Blue (and shaded) areas of the map correspond to the worst levels of connectivity, green (moderate), yellow (good) and red areas are associated with excellent access to the public transport system. As can be seen from the map, the areas around the major roads and transport hubs offer good / excellent access to public transport, however there remain large areas of the borough, especially in the centre and north, where connectivity to public transport is poor.[40]
Figure 2.21: Public Transport Access Levels (PTALs) for Barnet in 2021
Source: Transport for London (2018). Web-based Connectivity Assessment Toolkit (WebCAT). ©TfL.
[35] Department of Health and Social Care (2016). Start active, stay active: infographics on physical activity: Infographics explaining the physical activity needed for general health benefits for different age ranges. Physical activity benefits for adults and older adults. Available at:https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/541233/Physical_activity_infographic.PDF
[36] London Borough of Barnet (2017). Barnet Annual Director of Public Health Report 2017: The Built Environment and Health, ADPHR 2017. Available at: https://www.barnet.gov.uk/citizen-home/public-health/Key-strategic-documents-and-plans/Annual-Director-of-Public-Health-Report.html
[37] Transport for London (TfL, 2013). Transport planning for healthier lifestyles: A best practice guide.
[38] Greater London Authority (GLA, 2018). Mayor's Transport Strategy 2018. Available at:https://www.london.gov.uk/what-we-do/transport/our-vision-transport/mayors-transport-strategy-2018?intcmp=46686
[39] Transport for London (TfL, 2017). Factsheet for Barnet.
[40] Transport for London (TfL, 2018). Transport for London (2018). Web-based Connectivity Assessment Toolkit (WebCAT).
2.5 Employment
For the year to June 2018, the employment rate for working age people in Barnet (aged 16-64 years) was 71.4% (see Figure 2.22), which was the 10th lowest of the London boroughs, but similar to both London (74.2%) and England (75.2%). The proportion of working age population in Barnet who considered themselves employees (54.0%) was significantly lower than both London (60.6%) and England (64.1%). In contrast, the percentage of self-employed working age people in Barnet (17.4%) during this period was significantly higher than both London (13.3%) and England (10.9%).[41]
Figure 2.22: Employment rate (%) in Barnet, other London boroughs, London and England, persons aged 16-64 years, July 2017-June 2018
Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS, 2018). NOMIS: official labour market statistics for Barnet (based on Annual Population Survey].
Figure 2.23 shows that the unemployment rate (16-64 years) for Barnet (4.5%) was similar to both London (5.2%) and England (4.3%) between July 2017 and June 2018. Similarly, the proportion of people in Barnet aged 16-64 years who were economically inactive (due to study, retirement, illness or caring responsibilities) during that period was 25.3%, which was similar to both London (21.7%) and England (21.4%).[42]
Figure 2.23: Unemployment rate (%) in Barnet, other London boroughs, London and England, persons aged 16-64 years, July 2017-June 2018
Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS, 2018). NOMIS: official labour market statistics for Barnet (based on Annual Population Survey]. *: Small sample sizes for Wandsworth and Merton boroughs made the estimate of unemployment rate and confidence intervals (T -bars) unreliable.
Ward level employment and unemployment data for working aged people (aged 16-64 years) is based on the 2011 Census. At that time, the employment rate in Barnet was 70.0%, compared to 69.2% in London and 71.2% in England. The wards with the highest employment rates were East Finchley (74.9%) and High Barnet (74.5%), whereas the lowest employment rates were found in Colindale (61.9%) and Burnt Oak (63.7%).[43] Similarly, the wards with the highest percentage of unemployed people (aged 16-64) were Colindale (12.0%) and Burnt Oak (11.3%), whilst the lowest rates were found in Garden Suburb (4.7%) and Totteridge (5.4%), at a time when the unemployment rate in Barnet overall was 7.7%.[44]
[41] Office for National Statistics (ONS, 2018). NOMIS: official labour market statistics for Barnet (based on Annual Population Survey data) for employment rate (persons aged 16-64). Available at:http://www.nomisweb.co.uk/reports/lmp/la/1946157261/report.aspx
[42] Office for National Statistics (ONS, 2018). NOMIS: official labour market statistics for Barnet (based on Annual Population Survey data) for unemployment rate (persons aged 16-64). Available at:http://www.nomisweb.co.uk/reports/lmp/la/1946157261/report.aspx
[43] Greater London Authority (GLA, 2015). Ward Profiles and Atlas. Available at:https://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/ward-profiles-and-atlas
[44] Office for National Statistics (ONS, 2018). NOMIS: official labour market statistics for Barnet. 2011 ward profiles. Economically active: Unemployed. Available at:https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/reports/lmp/ward2011/1140857760/subreports/ward2011eact_compared/report.aspx
2.5.1 Mental Health and Employment
Although mental illness can make it more difficult for people to find work, there are an estimated 1.5 million working people in the UK with a diagnosed long term mental health condition. Whilst around 15% of working people in England experience symptoms of mental illness, people with a long term mental disorder are still far less likely to be in employment. Similarly, individuals with long term mental illness lose their jobs at roughly twice the rate of those without a mental health condition, equating to around 300,000 people with long term mental illness losing their jobs annually in the UK.[45]
Mental health problems are the single greatest cause of disability in the UK at an estimated annual cost to the economy of £105 billion, which is similar to the cost for the entire NHS annually. Housing and stable employment are important factors in both maintaining good mental health and recovering from mental illness. Whilst 60-70% of people with common mental health problems (e.g. depression and anxiety) are in work, people with mental illness are over represented in low-paid, high turnover, part-time and temporary work. There is also an employment gap between those with mental illness and those without. The employment rate for adults with mental health problems has been estimated at 43%, compare to 74% of the general population and 65% for people with other health conditions.[46]
Figure 2.24 shows the proportion of adults receiving NHS funded community mental health, learning disabilities or autism services between March 2017 and March 2018 who were in employment. For Barnet CCG during this period, only 4% of adults receiving these services were in employment, which was the 11th lowest of the 32 London CCGs and significantly lower than the England average of 6%.[47]
Figure 2.24: Percentage of adults in contact with secondary mental health services in employment, London CCGs and England, March 2017- March 2018
Source: NHS Digital (2018). Health and Social Care Information Centre - Mental Health Services Data Set (MHSDS).
A recent study by Investors in People[48] found that 80% of UK workers reported stress at work, with over half (54%) reporting that stress had impacted their home life. Against this background, just over a third (36%) said that their workplace supported mental wellbeing and only 40% would trust heir manager with a mental health concern. So there remains a considerable amount of work to do at both a local and national level to reduce the impact of mental illness on the UK workforce.
[45] Farmer, P. & Stevenson, D. (2017). Thriving at Work: The Stevenson / Farmer Review of mental health and employers (p.19). Available at:https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/658145/thriving-at-work-stevenson-farmer-review.pdf
[46] Mental Health Taskforce (2016). The 5-Year Forward View for Mental Health (p.4-16). Available at:https://www.england.nhs.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Mental-Health-Taskforce-FYFV-final.pdf
[47] NHS Digital (2018). Health and Social Care Information Centre - Mental Health Services Data Set (MHSDS). CCG OIS - Indicator 3.17: Percentage of adults in contact with secondary mental health services in employment. Available at: https://digital.nhs.uk/data-and-information/publications/clinical-indicators/ccg-outcomes-indicator-set
[48] Investors in People (IIP, 2018). Managing Mental Health in the Workplace, 2018.
2.5.2 Learning Disabilities and Employment
Adults with learning disabilities often experience greater difficulty and discrimination when seeking paid employment than other people in the UK. Over 65% of learning disabled adults want a job, however the proportion in paid employment is around one in ten. This disparity represents a major barrier to the full integration and participation of people with learning disabilities into wider society, as the lack of paid employment has serious implications for the independence, financial security, social interaction and overall life satisfaction of those affected.[49]
In Barnet, the proportion of supported working age adults with a learning disability who were in paid employment during 2015/16 was 8.8%, which was similar to London (7.5%) but significantly better than the England average (5.8%).[50] Similarly, the gap in the employment rate in 2016/17 between those with learning disabilities and those without, was 62.3% in Barnet (see Figure 2.25), which was similar to London (66.6%), but significantly better (lower) than England (68.7%).[51]
Figure 2.25: Gap in employment rate between people with learning disabilities and those without, London boroughs, London and England, persons aged 18-64 years, 2016/17
Source: Public Health England (PHE, 2018). Gap in the employment rate between those with a learning disability and the overall employment rate. Key: Green: Significantly better than England. Yellow: Similar to England. Red: Significantly worse than England.
[49] Vercida (2015). The barriers people with learning difficulties face in employment! Available at:https://www.vercida.com/uk/articles/the-barriers-people-with-learning-difficulties-face-in-employment
[50] Public Health England (PHE, 2018). Learning Disability Profiles. Proportion of supported working age adults with learning disability in paid employment (%), 2015/16. Available at:https://fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/learning-disabilities/data#page/3/gid/1938132704/pat/6/par/E12000007/ati/102/are/E09000003/iid/93164/age/183/sex/4
[51] Public Health England (PHE, 2018). Wider Determinants of Health Profile. Work and the labour market. Gap in the employment rate between those with a learning disability and the overall employment rate, 2016/17. Available at: https://fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/wider-determinants/data#page/3/gid/1938133042/pat/6/par/E12000007/ati/102/are/E09000003/iid/90283/age/183/sex/4
2.6 Skills and Qualifications
Nationally, it is of major concern that UK businesses do not have access to enough people with the right skills to meet their requirements. According to the Employment Trends Survey conducted by the Confederation of British Industry (CBI),[52] 79% of businesses regard this skills gap as the single biggest threat to UK labour market competitiveness. At the heart of this skills shortage lies the mismatch between the knowledge, skills and qualifications held by people and the requirements of employers.
When employers have hard to fill vacancies, it is mainly due to a lack of skills, qualifications or experience among applicants. [53] For Barnet, 62.2% of economically active working age people in 2017 had an NVQ4 qualification or higher (see Figure 2.26) which was similar to London (58.1%), but significantly higher than the England average (42.5%). In contrast, there was no significant difference between the percentage of economically active working age people in Barnet with no qualifications (3.7%) and those in London (4.3%) and England (4.8%). However, the proportion of economically active working age females in Barnet with an NVQ4 or higher (71.4%) was significantly higher than their male counterparts in the borough (54.0%). A similar pattern emerged at both a London and national (England) level, with a significantly higher percentage of economically active working age females having NVQ4 or higher qualifications than males.[54]
Figure 2.26: Proportion of economically active working age people with NVQ4 or higher qualification, London boroughs, London and England, 2017
Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS).
[52] Confederation of British Industry (CBI, 2018). Employment Trends Survey (p.26-29). Available at:http://www.cbi.org.uk/news/employment-trends-survey-finds-businesses-set-to-create-jobs-in-2018-despite-uncertainty/
[53] UK Commission for Employment and Skills (UKCES, 2018). Employer Skills Survey 2015: UK results (Amended May 2018) (p.32). Available at:https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/704104/Employer_Skills_Survey_2015_UK_Results-Amended-2018.pdf
[54] Office for National Statistics (ONS, 2018). Qualifications by Economic Activity Status, Borough. Available at: https://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/qualifications-economically-active-population-gender-borough
2.7 Incomes
The Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE) conducted by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) is based on a 1% sample of employee jobs taken from HMRC records for Pay As You Earn (PAYE). This survey reports the gross earnings before tax, National Insurance and deductions and provides the median gross weekly earnings. The median is a better indicator of typical earnings than the mean, as it is less susceptible to skewing by small numbers of very high earners.[55]
Figure 2.27 shows the median gross weekly earnings for full time employees resident in London local authorities, London and Great Britain for 2018. The gross median weekly earnings for Barnet are £674.10, compared to £670.80 for London and £571.10 for Great Britain. Out of the 33 local authorities in the capital, Barnet is ranked 15th on gross median weekly earnings for 2018, although most of the London local authorities have weekly earnings significantly higher than Great Britain.[56]
Figure 2.27: Median gross weekly earnings for full time employees residing in London local authorities, London and Great Britain, 2018
Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS): ASHE Survey 2018.
The trend in the gross weekly earnings for Barnet, London and Great Britain between 2006 and 2018 is shown in Figure 2.28. Over this period, the median gross weekly earnings in Barnet were consistently significantly higher than for Great Britain. In contrast, the weekly earnings for residents of Barnet and London overall were often similar during this period. For Barnet, London and Great Britain there was a significant rise in the median gross weekly earnings of residents between 2006 and 2018, by 22%, 25% and 28% respectively.[57]
Figure 2.28: Trends in median gross weekly earnings for full time employees residing in Barnet, London and Great Britain, 2006-2018
Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS, 2018). Labour Market Profile – Barnet.
[55] Office for National Statistics (ONS, 2018). Nomis: Official labour market statistics. Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE). Available at: https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/articles/1136.aspx
[56] Office for National Statistics (ONS, 2018). Nomis: Official labour market statistics. Labour Market Profile – Barnet. Available at: https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/reports/lmp/la/1946157261/report.aspx
[57] Office for National Statistics (ONS, 2018). Labour Market Profile – Barnet. Earnings by residence - Time series. Available at:https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/reports/lmp/la/1946157261/subreports/asher_time_series/report.aspx?